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 02 韩国经济第二季度增速创10年新高

02 韩国经济第二季度增速创10年新高

在出口强劲和消费反弹的推动下,今年第二季度韩国经济增速创10年来新高,但这一乐观势头被一波新冠疫情蒙上阴影。

Photo credit:FTChinese

全文共452个词,by Song Jung-a in Seoul

South Korea’s economy grew at its fastest pace in a decade in the second quarter on the back of robust exports and rebounding consumption, but the optimism was damped by a wave of Covid-19 infections.

在出口强劲和消费反弹的推动下,韩国经济增长在第二季度达到了10年来最快速度,但这一乐观势头被一波新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19,即2019冠状病毒病)感染蒙上阴影。

Gross domestic product expanded 5.9 per cent from a year earlier in the April-June quarter, according to the Bank of Korea, partly owing to the low base effect from last year when the country was hit hard by the pandemic. Asia’s fourth-largest economy continued to exceed pre-crisis levels but momentum slowed, with GDP expanding 0.7 per cent from the previous quarter.

韩国央行(Bank of Korea)的数据显示,今年第二季度,韩国国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长5.9%,部分原因是去年疫情对该国造成严重冲击所产生的低基数效应。这个亚洲第四大经济体继续超越危机前的水平,但势头有所放缓,GDP环比增长0.7%。

The economic recovery was underpinned by a jump in exports amid robust demand for semiconductors, cars and ships, surging 22.4 per cent year on year in the second quarter.Private consumption and government spending rose 3.5 per cent and 3.9 per cent,respectively, quarter on quarter.

在市场对半导体、汽车和船舶需求强劲的背景下,韩国出口大幅跃升,为经济复苏提供了支撑。今年第二季度韩国出口同比飙升22.4%。该季度私人消费和政府支出环比分别增长3.5%和3.9%。

But the latest surge in Covid-19 infections clouded South Korea’s economic outlook.Authorities have struggled to contain the country’s worst outbreak despite the government imposing its toughest restrictions since the start of the pandemic.

但最近新冠感染病例的激增给韩国的经济前景蒙上了阴影。尽管当局实施了自疫情开始以来最严厉的限制措施,但仍难以遏制该国迄今最严重的疫情。

Photo credit:Getty Images

Daily cases have topped 1,000 since early July, driven by the highly transmissible Delta variant. Vaccines are also in short supply, as just one-third of the population has had at least one dose of vaccine.

自7月初以来,每日新增病例数已经超过1000例,这是由高传染性的新冠病毒Delta变种造成的。疫苗供应也不足,只有三分之一的人口接种了至少一剂疫苗。

“The high base for private consumption likely points to a meaningful deceleration in the third quarter, especially given the recent resurgence of new coronavirus cases and renewed tightening in social distancing measures,” said economists at Goldman Sachs.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)经济学家表示:“私人消费的高基数可能意味着第三季度将出现重大减速,尤其是考虑到最近新增新冠病例数的再次攀升以及社交隔离措施的再度收紧。”

Photo credit:Getty Images

The growth data are expected to add pressure on the central bank to start tightening monetary policy earlier than expected. The BoK has increasingly shifted its focus towards reducing financial risk as record-low interest rates fuelled speculation in property, stock and cryptocurrency markets, stoking concerns about asset bubbles.

预计这一增长数据将给该国央行带来更大压力,迫使其提前开始收紧货币政策。随着创纪录的低利率刺激了房地产、股票和加密货币市场上的投机活动,引发了人们对资产泡沫的担忧,韩国央行已越来越多地将注意力转向降低金融风险。

Lee Ju-yeol, governor of the BoK, said this month that the central bank would discuss raising its benchmark interest rate at its next meeting in August, although the timing of a rate increase would hinge on the pandemic situation.

韩国央行行长李柱烈(Lee Ju-yeol)本月表示,该行将在8月举行的下次会议上讨论上调基准利率的问题,不过加息的时机将取决于疫情。

The central bank has said that fiscal stimulus should cushion the economic blow from virus restrictions. The parliament on Saturday passed the country’s second-largest extra budget bill worth almost Won35tn ($30bn) to provide cash handouts to the bottom 80 per cent of households by income.

韩国央行表示,财政刺激措施应该能缓解防疫措施对经济的冲击。上周六,韩国议会通过了总额近35万亿韩元(合300亿美元)的韩国第二大补充预算案,向收入最低的80%家庭提供现金补助。

“Provided the economy proves relatively resilient to the latest wave of the virus, as we expect, a rate hike from the Bank of Korea is still likely as soon as next month,” said Alex Holmes, an economist at Capital Economics, a research group.

研究集团凯投宏观(Capital Economics)经济学家亚历克斯·霍姆斯(Alex Holmes)说:“如果正如我们预期的那样,韩国经济在最新一轮疫情面前表现出较强的韧性,那么韩国央行最早可能于下月加息。”

That would make the BoK the first central bank in Asia to start normalising policy this year.The BoK expects the Korean economy to expand 4 per cent this year, rebounding from a 0.9 per cent contraction last year.

这将使韩国央行成为今年首个启动政策正常化的亚洲央行。韩国央行预计,今年韩国经济将增长4%,从去年收缩0.9%的水平回升。

Separately, North and South Korea said on Tuesday that they had agreed to restore communications channels. The decision followed a more than two-year stalemate for Seoul’s efforts to engage Pyongyang and international diplomacy to denuclearise the isolated communist country.

另外,朝鲜和韩国周二表示已同意重启通讯渠道。首尔方面与平壤方面接触的努力和国际社会旨在让与世隔绝的共产主义国家朝鲜无核化的外交努力已陷入僵局逾两年。