Seasonality

Seasonality manifests as repetitive and period variations in a time series. In most cases, exploratory data analysis reveals the presence of seasonality. Let us revisit the de-trended time series of the CO₂ concentrations. Though the de-trended line series has constant mean and constant variance, it systematically departs from the trend model in a predictable fashion.

Seasonality is manifested as periodic deviations such as those seen in the de-trended observations of CO₂ emissions. Peaks and troughs in the monthly sales volume of seasonal goods such as Christmas gifts or seasonal clothing is another example of a time series with seasonality.

A practical technique of determining seasonality is through exploratory data analysis through the following plots:

• Run sequence plot
• Seasonal sub series plot
• Multiple box plots